Badakhshan is becoming a new source of instability in Afghanistan

In Afghan Badakhshan detected the appearance of a large group of militants. Army attempts to oust them from the province so far unsuccessfully. Experts anxiously watching the situation.
The situation in northern Afghanistan is a growing concern of observers. Clashes with government troops militants have trickled down to the Badakhshan province, which borders China, Pakistan and Tajikistan.

According to Afghan media in March, the Taliban took control of most of the county Vardudzh. As reported by news agencies, hundreds of local residents were forced to flee their homes. People are afraid that will be used by militants as human shields.



Meanwhile, the Tajik media reported that on March 16 Vardudzhe were shot Afghan Ministry of Interior. In Tajikistan, the current intensification of the Taliban in Badakhshan attributed to several factors. Including seasonal."In the mountains, snow started melting, which facilitated the movement of militants across difficult terrain. Can assume that they decided to use as a sort Vardudzh outpost to gather strength and to act on," - said the expert of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Tajikistan Vafo Niyatbekov.

He drew attention to the fact that insurgent groups gathering in the Afghan north, there are representatives of different nationalities. "There's people from Central Asia, as well as a number of Russian regions. This is not surprising: they share a religion and a desire to earn" - explains Niyatbekov.

What to expect?

As analysts, future actions of militants in Vardudzhe difficult to predict. They can go as a clash with Afghan army and try to break into small groups of neighboring countries.

"I do not think that the Taliban will decide on large-scale operations. Perhaps they will begin to transfer small groups of 10-15 people across the Afghan-Tajik border, and further, for example, in Kyrgyzstan. It is possible that the Taliban want to show that the northern route of transit for NATO troops in Afghanistan can also be unsafe, "- says Vafo Niyatbekov.

According to the expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS) Dmitry Popov, a pretty strong chance of the situation in the following scenario. If the government of Hamid Karzai and the Afghan security forces, supported by NATO, will be unable to exercise effective control over the territories of northern Afghanistan is to increase the number of radical groups, including people from Central Asia. "These armed groups, according to their gain, sooner or later might try to strike at the secular regimes in Central Asian countries" - warns Popov.

As noted in an interview with DW Regional Program Coordinator for Central Asia of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Alexander Knyazev, the government in Kabul has never had a strong position in Badakhshan. The expert drew attention to the absence in the Afghan region tradition of centralized state. Therefore, in his words, attempts to Kabul authorities to intervene in the affairs of the regional elite, tend to be helpless. The border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan Gorno-Badakhshan

"I remember a situation where a few years ago he was appointed governor of Badakhshan, an ethnic Pashtun, a native of Baghlan. Matter is not in its origin, and in the fact of the arrival of a stranger. As a result, most of the province controlled by a warlord, who was sitting in a small town Bohorake, and the governor basically ran his residence and spoke with reporters, "- said Knyazev.

The factors leading to the destabilization of the situation in Badakhshan, Kabul, and pay attention to the political scientist Hazrat Vahriz. He believes that the worsening situation in Badakhshan caused not only by the power of the Taliban rise. "Vivid struggle for control over drug trafficking in the north and the rivalry of warlords different groups, which, along with the Taliban come from Pakistan" - explains Vahriz.

He believes that the militants of Afghan Badakhshan hardly dare spring and summer excursions to neighboring Tajikistan: "The Taliban now focused on Afghanistan itself and is unlikely to want to throw forces." Meanwhile, the expert community is now trying to analyze the possible developments in northern Afghanistan in 2014, when the country should leave the NATO force.

In the predictions of the consequences of withdrawal of the alliance is no consensus among analysts. "The Taliban, even if they come to power in Afghanistan, will face resistance to society. Therefore, to say that they want to fight in other regions, it is premature," - says Tajik political scientist Rustam Haydarov.


According to his Afghan counterpart Hazrat Vahriza, much - if not all - it depends on the political situation in Afghanistan on the eve of departure of international forces. "Will there be elections in the country? Enough whether the Afghan army's morale to resist the Taliban? Many questions unanswered," - concluded Hazrat Vahriz.